Well, the moment you’ve all been waiting for is finally here.
Late last week, the Ukrainian government officially announced its first mechanism for exporting defense and military technology to partner nations. Under the setup—in the works for nearly two years—the government will maintain pretty tight control over exports, but manufacturers will (at long last) be able to sell abroad.
That is, so long as Ukraine’s Defense Forces are still provided for.
“Exports will be permitted only if the requirements of the Ukrainian military are fully guaranteed. If the state requires a particular type of defense product, export authorization may be withheld,” Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in a statement. “At the same time, manufacturers will be allowed to export their products if they can guarantee the simultaneous fulfillment of both government contracts and export orders.”
Look out, y’all. The Ukrainians really are coming.
On the market: Now, we first covered the lifting of Ukraine’s export ban last August—back then, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Trump were in talks for the US to buy a bunch of Ukrainian weapons once they were cleared for export.
- For context: Ukraine’s government banned weapons exports from the country following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. The idea was to keep stuff in the country to, well, fight the war.
- But (as we all know) Ukraine’s defense industry and production capacity grew mega-quickly in the first few years of the war, leading to a new issue: Defense companies can now produce a heck of a lot more than the government can afford to buy.
- Worth noting: According to the government, defense production capacity has increased about 50X since the start of the war, from about $1B annually in 2022 to about $55B in 2026.
- While that domestic production now meets more than 50 percent of the Ukrainian military’s needs (per the government), a lot of it (like, anywhere from 40 to 70 percent) remains idle.
Hence the need for a way to export those very battlefield-proven pieces of tech.
- Zelenskyy formally directed Ukraine’s MoD to figure out a way to export Ukrainian weapons (without putting the country at risk) back in October 2024.
- Late in 2025 and earlier this year, he said the government would set out formalized processes for exports—but the process has remained fairly murky.
- Kyiv has signed six “drone deals” (defense deals to use Ukrainian tech and know-how against nasty things like Shaheds) with countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, Latvia, and Lithuania, and hopes to sign another seven with NATO countries by the end of the year.
- Countries including Denmark, Sweden, Canada, Germany, and the UK have all also funded domestic weapons production in Ukraine—but for Ukrainian use.
This new deal takes everything Ukraine has honed over four years of war and (put simply) sets up a way for the rest of the world to benefit from it. Here’s how the export system will work:
- Countries that have already signed drone deals with Ukraine will be able to buy directly from Ukrainian manufacturers.
- If manufacturers want to sell more than $15M UAH ($336,622) worth of goods to a foreign buyer, they’ll have to submit an application to the government for review, which will take no more than 30 days.
- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will determine “eligible partner countries,” per Federov, and the MoD will make a list of tech that absolutely cannot be exported. Those specifics have yet to be released.
- Importantly, intellectual property rights for the tech will remain with Ukraine and “any re-export or transfer to third parties will require Ukraine’s prior written consent.” 20% of that re-export value will be funneled back to Ukraine.
- Exports of surplus equipment, as well as tech like low-cost interceptors, will be allowed—so long as it doesn’t detract from Ukrainian capabilities.
“Our goal is to create the conditions that allow Ukrainian manufacturers to expand production, enter new markets and attract international investment while maintaining the highest priority of supporting Ukraine’s Defense Forces,” Federov wrote in his statement.
The decision to formally open exports comes as Federov himself has said his country needs more funding to continue the war—this could bring in some cash as the country seeks more international aid.
- In June, the country sent an urgent request to the European Union to get the entirety of the €6.6B ($7.5B) European Peace Facility (EPF) sent to Kyiv to fund the conflict.
- After back-to-back deadly attacks on Kyiv in the past week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy (at least partially) blamed delays in Western aid (especially in terms of air defense) for the number of deaths.
“It is extremely important for the world, first and foremost America and our European partners, to emerge from the NATO summit in Ankara with strong decisions to support our air defense, and thus the protection of ordinary people’s lives,” he wrote on X today. “The United States and Europe have enough power to stop this terror.”
Let’s hope that planned meeting with Trump goes well.