At the height of the Cold War in 1983, President Ronald Reagan proposed a space-based missile defense program called the Strategic Defense Initiative. He said it would protect the entire US from a nuclear attack, eventually making nuclear weapons obsolete. The plan was quickly dubbed “Star Wars” because it sounded like something out of a techno-futurist blockbuster.
By 1993, the program had all but collapsed. Star Wars remained in a galaxy far, far away. But now, just 10 days into his second presidency, Trump has picked up the mantle. On Tuesday, the president made good on his campaign promises and ordered the development of “The Iron Dome for America” (a nod to Israel’s notorious missile defense system).
- The Pentagon has been ordered to build a system that will protect the US from the “catastrophic threat” of attack by ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles.
- SecDef Pete Hegseth has been ordered to present an implementation strategy within 60 days.
- The order calls for a range of tech to be included, from space-based sensors and interceptors, to ground-based missile defense, to non-kinetic capabilities like electronic warfare.
Brilliant pebbles: So, what will this actually mean? Is an Israeli-style Iron Dome possible in the US?
“Don’t take the name literally,” Masao Dahlgren, a fellow with the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Tectonic. “But do pay attention to the leadership signal that’s being sent here.”
A full Iron Dome could be tough to pull off. (Plus, Todd Harrison of AEI pointed out that a space-based system might not even be that effective.) But Dahlgren thinks the DoD could start by improving cruise missile defense and working up to higher altitudes from there.
“A realistic vision would be one tailored towards a couple of priority areas,” he said. “Instead of covering an entire coast, a realistic cruise missile defense would integrate existing ground-based systems and sensors that don’t need to be put on F-35s.”
Dark n’ Swarmy: Dahlgren proposes a “disaggregated” defense system that uses swarms of smaller, cheaper tech—like drones on the battlefield, but for missile defense. That covers systems like interceptors in shipping containers, computer vision to detect missile threats, and cell phones as sensors. This could provide opportunities for nontraditional defense companies.
“When we’re looking at startups, I’m excited for all the companies that are building solid rocket motors. I’m excited about the startups that are building radiation-hardened computers or a piece of adhesive tape that is heat resistant and used to tape a specific seal on a missile. I’m interested in things that accelerate our supply chain,” Dahlgren said.
Fielding defensive tech quickly will be critical as adversaries like China, Iran, and Russia continue to build up their cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missile capabilities.