Again, we’re not saying that money moves are happening across Europe because of the Tectonic European Defense Summit…but the signs are there.
This morning, Ukraine signed what Emmanuel Macron called a “historic” letter of intent with the French government to buy 100 Dassault-made Rafale fighter jets, along with eight SAMP/T air defense systems and Aster-30 interceptor missiles, produced by MBDA.
According to the agreement, Ukraine also wants to buy French drones and drone interceptors. France intends to “put the excellence of [its] defense industry at the service of Ukraine’s protection,” President Macron said at the letter-signing ceremony at Villacoublay Air Base outside of Paris, flanked by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy called the agreement “historic” and said the two countries would also begin to co-produce kit.
“Joint projects between our defense sectors will also begin this year – we will co-produce interceptor drones and work on developing critical technologies and components that can be integrated into Ukrainian drones,” he wrote on X.
Ukrainian winter, here we come.
Ready for takeoff: Fighter jets have long been a bit of a pain point for Ukraine. TL;DR: Kyiv has long pushed for more capable fighters to win the war, but Western allies (very much including the US) have dragged their feet for fear of escalating the fight with Russia.
- In 2023, close-by countries began to send over some Soviet-era MiG-29s, mostly ex-Warsaw Pact fighters that the Ukrainians could use (or break down for parts) fast.
- The US and European allies started setting up the infrastructure for Ukrainian use of F-16s—including training—in 2023. The first jets (usually older models sourced from European countries) arrived and were fielded by Ukraine last year.
- France sent over some Mirage 2000-5s (also made by Dassault) earlier this year. Ukraine cheekily shared a video of one this morning ahead of the announcement.
- European countries have also continued to send over more F-16s, with even more promised. In total, about 85 F-16s have been promised and over a dozen delivered.
- Last month, Ukraine signed a similar letter of intent with Sweden to buy up to 150 Saab Gripen-E fighters, funded by frozen Russian assets. Fun.
Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine intends to build up a fleet of up to 250 shiny new fighter aircraft—mostly F-16s, Rafales, and Gripens. Major upgrade from its current Soviet-era fleet.
Multitasking: So, why the Rafale? Put simply, it’s a workhorse. The multirole, twin-engine, carrier-capable jet can do a bit of everything: air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, deep strike, maritime ops, and nuclear delivery.
- The fighter also has a strong EW suite, important when fighting Russia.
- According to Dassault, a total of 234 aircraft have been ordered by the French Armed Forces—Macron said, however, that the planes for Ukraine would be newly produced.
- The Rafale has been used in Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, Iraq, and Syria. The jets were also deployed by India in a fight with Pakistan earlier this year—Pakistan claims it shot down three.
The only issue is that these high-end capabilities can be pretty expensive (the French Armed Forces’ latest order for 42 in 2024 came to about $130M per fighter). They’re also not super stealthy—but they’ve got a heck of a lot more capabilities than the Eurofighter or the Gripen, and are arguably a lot less politically charged than the F-35.
In terms of cost, Macron said he hoped that Europe would help foot the bill for the new fighters, but that’s a bit of a pain point in and of itself—Europe has said it wants to use about €140B worth of frozen Russian assets to fund these sorts of deals, but the bloc has not come to agreement over how, exactly, to do that. Details, details.
Tea time: This afternoon, the Ukrainians are set to have a second forum with French companies building drones—we can think of at least a few companies who were with us at the summit that will be very, very chuffed.